A few days ago, the China Power Union released the "Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2018", the full text of which is as follows:

National Electricity Supply and Demand in the First Half of 1.

(I) the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society, electricity consumption presents a new bright spot

In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society 3.23 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of 9.4 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, 1. grew by 9.8 per cent and 9.0 per cent in the second quarter, respectively, and the growth rate remained in the 5.5-10 per cent growth range for the eighth consecutive quarter.

In the first half of the year, the main reasons for the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society were as follows: first, the macro-economy provided the most important support for the growth of electricity consumption. Since the beginning of this year, the overall macroeconomic operation has been stable and stable. The improvement of economic benefits of industrial enterprises and the steady development of production have supported the growth of electricity consumption, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry has increased by 7.6 year-on-year. Second, the weather factors and the upgrading of residents' consumption jointly pull the impact. With the upgrading of residents' consumption and the continuous improvement of electrification level, the impact of weather factors on electricity load and electricity consumption is more obvious. The cold wave at the beginning of this year and the high temperature weather since the beginning of summer have led to the rapid growth of electricity consumption, and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 13.2 year-on-year. Taking Guangdong as an example, due to the cold wave at the beginning of the year and the high temperature weather in May, the province increased the electricity consumption of the whole society by about 9.4 billion kWh in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the province was about 3.5 percentage points. Third, the service industry maintained rapid growth. New industries, new formats, and new models of the service industry are booming, new kinetic energy is accelerating, and domestic consumption has maintained a steady and rapid growth, which jointly drove the service industry to maintain a rapid growth momentum in electricity consumption. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 14.7 year-on-year. The electricity consumption of information transmission/software and information technology services increased by 25.5 year-on-year. Four is the continuous promotion of electric energy substitution. According to the ''Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2018 '', this year, a batch of electric energy replacement projects will be implemented in key replacement areas such as coal-fired boilers, kilns, and port and port electricity. It is planned to complete 100 billion kilowatt-hours of replacement electricity throughout the year. The current time is more than half, and the task is also More than half.

The main characteristics of electricity consumption are:

First, the steady and rapid growth of electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry. Electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector 1.66 trillion kWh, up 7.3 per cent year-on-year. From the perspective of several major industries, the electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries has increased rapidly. Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry, computer/communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, metal products industry, electrical machinery and equipment The growth rate of electricity consumption in the six industries of manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing all exceeded 9%. The electricity consumption of consumer goods manufacturing industries is growing rapidly. Among them, the electricity consumption of agricultural and sideline food processing industry, culture and education/art beauty/sports and entertainment products manufacturing industry, leather/fur/feather and its products and footwear industry, wine/beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry, furniture manufacturing industry, textile and clothing/clothing industry, wood processing and wood/bamboo/rattan/brown/grass products industry all grew by more than 9%. The growth rate of traditional high-load energy industries fell overall, with the combined electricity consumption of the four major high-load energy industries [1] growing by 5.1, below the manufacturing average, and the growth rate fell by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 1.0 and 2.7, respectively. Driven by the low base of the previous year and the increase in the growth rate of crude steel production since this year, the electricity consumption of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 11.4 year-on-year.

Second, the electricity consumption structure continues to optimize and adjust the trend. According to the latest classification criteria for the three industries [2], the proportions of primary and 2. tertiary industries and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents are 1.0 per cent, 69.2 per cent, 15.7 per cent and 14.1 per cent, respectively. Compared with the same period last year [3], the proportion of the primary industry remained the same; the proportion of the secondary industry decreased by 1.2 percentage points, of which the proportion of the four major high-energy industries decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year; the proportion of the tertiary industry and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents Increased by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points respectively.

Third, the power consumption growth momentum continues to shift. The contribution of the first and 2. tertiary industries and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society was 1.1 per cent, 56.5 per cent, 23.4 per cent and 19.0 per cent, respectively. The contribution rate of the secondary industry decreased by 11.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year, of which the contribution rate of the four major high-energy-carrying industries decreased by 13.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which was more than that of the secondary industry, which was mainly made up by the increase in the contribution rate of high-tech and equipment manufacturing; the contribution rate of the tertiary industry and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents exceeded its proportion by 7.7 and 4.9 percentage points respectively. The driving force for the growth of electricity consumption continues the trend of transformation from traditional high-load energy industries to service industries, household consumption, high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries.

Fourth, the growth rate of electricity consumption is high in the west and low in the east. Electricity consumption in 31 provinces across the country has achieved positive growth. From a regional perspective, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions increased by 7.7, 10.4, 11.9, and 9.6 year-on-year respectively; electricity consumption of the whole society was driven respectively. The growth rate was 3.7, 1.9, 3.2, and 0.6 percentage points. Although the growth rate of electricity consumption in the eastern region was lower than that in other regions, due to its high proportion, the pull rate.

(II) power clean and low-carbon development trend is obvious, high-quality development results show

As of the end of June, the installed power generation capacity of power plants 6000 kW and above nationwide was 1.73 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percent, and the growth rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, hydropower 0.3 billion kilowatts, thermal power 1.11 billion kilowatts, nuclear power 36.94 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power 0.17 billion kilowatts.

The main features of power supply are:

First, the green transformation of power generation structure continues to advance, non-fossil energy power generation new installed proportion of record high. Under the background of the country's promotion of supply-side structural reform and the promotion of the resolution of excess capacity of coal power, the power supply structure continues to be optimized. The country's new installed power generation capacity was 52.11 million kilowatts, an increase of 1.6 million kilowatts year-on-year. Among them, the newly installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 38.27 million kilowatts, accounting for 73.5 percent of the total newly installed capacity, a record high over the years; among them, the newly installed capacity of solar power generation was 25.81 million kilowatts, accounting for about half of the total newly installed capacity, and the newly installed capacity of solar power generation in the eastern and central regions accounted for 73.8 percent of the country. New coal power installed capacity of 9.98 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3.

Second, hydropower power generation is growing at a low speed, and new energy power generation such as solar power generation is growing rapidly. The country's above-scale power generation increased by 8.3 percent year-on-year. Among them, affected by the low-speed growth of hydropower installed capacity and the lack of water in some river basins, the hydropower generation capacity above designated size increased by 2.9 year-on-year; the thermal power generation increased by 8.0 year-on-year under the influence of factors such as the rapid growth of power consumption and the low-speed growth of hydropower generation.%. Grid-connected solar power, wind power, and nuclear power generation were 817, 1917, and 130 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, up 63.2, 28.6, and 13.1 percent year-on-year.

Third, the utilization hours of wind power, solar power generation and other equipment increased year-on-year, and the problem of unreasonable abandonment of wind and light continued to be improved. The utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1858 hours, an increase of 68 hours over the same period last year. Among them, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment were 1505 hours, a decrease of 9 hours compared with the same period last year; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment were 2126 hours, an increase of 116 hours compared with the same period last year; and the utilization hours of solar power, wind power and nuclear power equipment were 637, 1143 and 3548 hours respectively, an increase of 7, 159 and 141 hours compared with the same period last year. With the joint efforts of governments at all levels and power companies, the problem of abandoning wind and light and water has continued to be improved. This year, the State Grid Corporation and China Southern Power Grid have formulated 22 and 24 work measures to promote clean energy consumption. Accelerating power grid construction, rationally arranging scheduling, increasing market transactions, strengthening the consumption of the entire network, and promoting technological innovation have promoted clean energy consumption, and the effect is obvious. For example, in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation of China, the utilization hours of wind power equipment in the northeast and northwest regions increased by 198 and 170 hours respectively compared with the same period last year, and the utilization hours of solar power equipment in the northwest region increased by 76 hours compared with the same period last year. Clean energy power generation in the first half of the year in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid Corporation was basically fully covered.

Fourth, cross-regional and cross-provincial power transmission is growing rapidly, and clean energy continues to optimize the allocation of large-scale. Power grid companies have made every effort to serve poverty alleviation, continue to strengthen investment in the construction of rural power grids and distribution networks, and effectively improve production and electricity conditions such as agriculture and rural service industries. The proportion of investment in power grids of 110 kV and below continues to be more than half. The national infrastructure has added 149.81 million kVA of substation equipment capacity of 220 kV and above, 22396km of transmission lines length of 220 kV and above, and 5 million kW of ± 800 kV converter capacity. Driven by the successive commissioning of a number of UHV projects in the past two years, the country has completed cross-regional and cross-provincial power transmission 2001 and 573.6 billion kWh respectively, an increase of 20.3 and 19.4 respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 19.5 and 11.4 percentage points respectively over the same period last year, helping clean energy to achieve a wide range of optimal allocation.

Fifth, the supply of electricity and fuel is tight, and the operating situation of coal-fired power enterprises is still relatively severe. In the first half of the year, the supply of thermal coal and natural gas was tight in regional periods, and the contradiction between supply and demand in a few areas was more prominent. The price of thermal coal is generally in a high fluctuation trend. According to the China Coastal Thermal Coal Purchase Price Index-CECI Coastal Index, the CECI5500 large-card comprehensive price reflecting the comprehensive cost of thermal coal purchase fluctuated between 571-635 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. All prices exceeded the upper limit of the green range stipulated in the "Memorandum on Stabilizing Abnormal Fluctuations in Coal Market Prices". The continued high domestic coal prices also led to a rapid rise in imported coal prices, it has significantly increased the procurement costs of domestic enterprises. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the current asset profit margin of the national thermal power industry is only 0.3 percent, the loss of thermal power companies is still close to half, and some large power generation groups continue to lose money in the coal power and heating sectors.

(III) the country's electricity supply and demand is generally loose, a few areas have staggered peak power rationing.

In the first half of the year, the country's electricity supply and demand was generally loose, but the degree of easing was significantly narrower than in the previous two years. From a regional point of view, the power supply capacity in the northeast and northwest regions is surplus, and the power supply and demand in North China, East China, Central China and South China are generally balanced. Among them, the central China region was affected by the low temperature and cold wave in January, and many provincial power grids adopted orderly power consumption measures, and some provinces in the southern region have local and periodic power supply shortages.

Forecast of National Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2.

Electricity consumption of the whole society continued to grow steadily and rapidly in (I), with the annual growth rate exceeding that in 2017

According to the forecast of the meteorological department, the temperature in most parts of the country will be on the high side this summer, and there will be continuous and large-scale high temperature weather in some areas. Taking into account factors such as macro-economy, temperature, electric energy substitution, high base in the same period last year, international trade environment, blue sky defense war and environmental protection and safety inspection, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the second half of 2018 will be lower than that in the first half of 2018. It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the whole year will be better than expected at the beginning of the year, exceeding the growth level in 2017.

(II) is expected to add 0.12 billion kilowatts of installed capacity in the whole year, and the installed capacity will reach 1.9 billion kilowatts by the end of the year.

It is estimated that the installed capacity of new power generation nationwide will be 0.12 billion kilowatts throughout the year, of which about 73 million kilowatts will be added to non-fossil energy power generation and slightly less than 40 million kilowatts will be added to coal power generation. At the end of the year, the installed capacity of power generation reached about 1.9 billion kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of coal power was 1.02 billion kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation reached 0.76 billion kilowatts. The proportion further increased to 40%, an increase of about 1.5 percentage points from the end of 2017. It is expected that the supply and demand situation of thermal coal is seasonally tight in the region, and the supply and demand situation of thermal coal is severe during the peak period of power plants mainly imported coal in the northeast and coastal and riverside regions.

(III) the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country, and power supply and demand in some areas is tight during the peak summer period.

Affected by multiple factors such as the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy, the insufficient peak shaving capacity of the power system in some periods, the continuous increase in the proportion of tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption, the continuous increase in the peak-valley difference of the system, and the regional seasonal tightness of electricity and coal. It is expected that the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country, and power supply and demand in some areas will be tight during the peak summer peak period.

From a regional perspective, it is expected that the power supply in North China will be tight, and the power supply in southern Hebei, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan and Shandong power grids will be tight during the peak summer peak period; the power supply and demand in some provinces in East China, Central China, and South China are tight, mainly Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and other provinces are tight during the peak summer peak period; the northeast and northwest regions are expected to have surplus power supply capacity. It is estimated that the utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide are about 3770 hours, of which the utilization hours of thermal power equipment are about 4300 hours.

3. relevant recommendations

In the second half of the year, the full implementation of the spirit of the party's 19th congress continued to push forward. More than half of the time, the power industry conscientiously implemented the central economic work conference and the national "two sessions" spirit task is extremely heavy. It is necessary to earnestly follow the requirements of high-quality development, do a good job in ensuring power during the peak summer, strengthen the supply of power generation fuel, alleviate the operating difficulties of power enterprises, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry, and revise the "13th Five-Year Plan" power development plan to promote the supply-side structure The main line of structural reform is to steadily do a good job in power work in the new era to better meet the people's electricity needs for a better life.

(I) implement the peak summer work plan and plan, and effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system.

First, the implementation of relevant programs and plans. Relevant localities and enterprises should strictly implement the National Development and Reform Commission's "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Guaranteeing Coal, Electricity, Oil and Gas Transportation during the Peak Summer Period in 2018" (Development and Reform Operation [2018] No. 855), and coordinate coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation Guarantee work. On the basis of scientific research and judgment of the local supply and demand situation during the peak summer period, all regions should effectively link up the work of giving priority to the purchase of electricity, the market-oriented trading of electricity, and the transmission and reception of electricity across provinces and regions, and do everything possible to improve the power generation and supply capacity during peak hours.

The second is to do a good job of stable power supply. Power grid enterprises should scientifically arrange the operation mode of power system, strengthen the cross-provincial and cross-regional balance of power, and optimize the operation and management of peak-regulating power stations such as pumped storage. Power generation enterprises should carefully analyze the supply and demand situation, carefully formulate fuel procurement, capacity connection and reserve plans, and dynamically adjust and optimize according to the actual fuel consumption to ensure the fuel demand for power generation. Strengthen equipment operation, maintenance and management to ensure stable supply of units.

The third is to strengthen the analysis and monitoring of power system operating characteristics. The current economic structure adjustment has brought about an increase in the peak-to-valley difference of power load and a continuous increase in the proportion of new energy, resulting in insufficient peak load regulation capacity of the power system, major changes in the form and characteristics of the power system, and greatly increased the uncertainty of system operation. Power grid enterprises should strengthen the analysis of power system operation characteristics and study operation plans in combination with changes in power load characteristics to ensure the safe, stable and economic operation of the power system; relevant departments and local governments need to pay close attention to the survival and safe operation of thermal power units in major hydropower provinces such as Yunnan and Guizhou to ensure that coal power is used as a backup power source to support the power system.

(II) strengthen the supply of coal and natural gas during the peak summer and winter, and ensure the reliable supply of power generation fuel

First, we will do everything possible to increase the supply of electricity and coal to ensure the safety of coal for power supply and heating. Shanxi, Shaanxi, Mongolia and other key coal-producing areas should earnestly implement the memorandum of increasing production and supply, accelerate the release of high-quality production capacity, increase effective resource supply to ensure the balance of domestic coal supply and demand; relevant departments continue to strengthen coordination in environmental protection, safety supervision, land, customs and other aspects to avoid one-size-fits-all, increase the capacity release and capacity replacement of high-quality and efficient mines; strengthen the coordination of relevant coal mine procedures in eastern Mongolia area to release capacity as soon as possible, to solve the problem of coal storage in the northeast for winter and the supply gap of electric coal during the peak winter period, and to ensure the use of coal for power supply and heating in the northeast region in winter.

The second is to further improve the medium and long-term contract mechanism, increase the proportion of medium and long-term contracts signed by local coal enterprises and small and medium-sized coal enterprises, and strengthen supervision to ensure compliance. We will continue to give full play to the role of medium-and long-term contracts as a stabilizer of thermal coal prices, further standardize the pricing mechanism of medium-and long-term contracts, and improve the supervision and assessment mechanism of medium-and long-term contracts, so as to achieve the coverage of the whole process of supervision. In view of the low proportion of medium-and long-term contracts signed by some local coal enterprises and small and medium-sized coal enterprises, we should carry out two-party or multi-party verification of contracts with prominent problems, implement the supervision, assessment and accountability mechanism for key issues, and improve the contract performance ratio.

Three is to improve the import of coal policy. As a powerful supplement to my country's thermal coal supply, imported coal plays an important role in the balance of supply and demand of the national thermal coal market, especially in coastal areas, and stabilizing market prices and expectations under the current situation that there is a certain gap between the supply and demand of thermal coal. It is recommended to maintain the stability and continuity of the imported coal policy, give full play to the supplementary supply of high-quality imported coal, and speed up the customs clearance of direct imported coal from power generation enterprises; strengthen the overall planning of the imported coal policy to avoid the shortage of coal supply and price fluctuations during the subsequent winter preparation and peak winter due to total amount control.

Four is to strengthen the key areas of coal supply and transport capacity guarantee, and the introduction of measures to establish coal reserve base. For Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Northeast, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou and other areas with reduced production capacity and areas with capacity constraints, the allocation of railway capacity should be tilted, and the capacity guarantee for the performance of medium-and long-term contracts should be strengthened; relevant measures should be introduced at the national level, special funds should be set up, national strategic coal reserve bases should be established in key areas, and local governments should be supported to build coal storage and transit bases, in order to ensure the safe and stable supply of coal during key periods such as peak summer and winter, and to alleviate the contradictions and constraints of coal production and coal consumption seasonal fluctuations and limited transport capacity.

Fifth, pay close attention to the supply of natural gas. Since the winter of last year, the supply of natural gas has been tight, and there is still a shortage of gas for power generation in some areas such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu in the current off-season. In order to avoid repeated shortages of gas for heating and power generation, it is recommended to strengthen gas supply, especially for areas with a relatively high proportion of gas power generation such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Zhejiang, speed up the construction of gas storage infrastructure, strengthen the organization and coordination of gas resources, and do everything possible to ensure gas safety.

(III) reduce the operating costs of power enterprises and effectively alleviate the operating difficulties of power enterprises.

One is to take more measures to stabilize coal prices in the green range, and effectively alleviate the loss of coal power enterprises. Further standardize the pricing mechanism, put an end to non-standard behaviors such as a wide range of medium-and long-term contracts, non-standard pricing, and disguised price increases; further standardize the charges of railways, ports and other links, effectively reduce the logistics cost of power coal; increase the effective supervision and reasonable guidance of coal market prices, and crack down on hoarding and speculation. Do everything possible to stabilize the comprehensive price of thermal coal within the green range determined by the state, effectively alleviate the operating difficulties of coal and power enterprises, and enhance the ability of coal and power enterprises to ensure supply and sustainable development.

Two is to broaden the channels, improve the mechanism, as soon as possible to solve the Chen owed renewable energy subsidies cash. By speeding up the introduction of green certificate related management rules, promoting the implementation of the green certificate system and other measures, broaden the sources of renewable energy subsidies, ensure that subsidies are in place on time, and effectively solve the plight of renewable energy enterprises with profits and no cash flow, and ease the pressure on business operations, Maintain the safety of the enterprise's capital chain.

The third is to continue to give preferential policies on value-added tax to the hydropower industry to effectively reduce the operating costs of enterprises. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Notice on Value-Added Tax Policies for Large Hydropower Enterprises" (Caishui [2014] No. 10) document expired at the end of 2017. In view of the current actual value-added tax burden of large hydropower enterprises reaching more than 16%, which is much higher than the average tax burden of industrial enterprises and industries, it is recommended to continue the preferential value-added tax policies of the hydropower industry and expand the scope of benefits, and include immigrant investment and interest expenses, effectively implement the national supply-side structural reform to "reduce costs" and promote the healthy development of the hydropower industry.

(IV) accelerate the transformation and upgrading of photovoltaic industry, and effectively improve the quality and efficiency of energy development

First, strengthen the research and implementation of relevant policies and measures to further promote the healthy and orderly development of the photovoltaic industry. In order to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, the relevant state departments issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018", which clearly controlled the subsidy policies and scale indicators of the photovoltaic industry. It is suggested to strengthen the analysis of policy preparation and release, buffer design and effect prediction, ensure the continuity and transparency of industrial policies, reasonably guide the orderly development of photovoltaic enterprises, and avoid the project production and waste of resources caused by policy fluctuations. Local governments should actively implement various national policies to support the development of photovoltaic industry, effectively help enterprises reduce non-technical costs and optimize the business environment. Speed up the mid-term evaluation and rolling revision of the 13th five-year Plan for energy development, reasonable adjustments to targets such as photovoltaic power generation installations that significantly exceed the planned schedule; accelerate the formulation of relevant standards in the photovoltaic industry, improve the photovoltaic industry access system, and promote enterprise technology upgrades; accelerate the implementation of the renewable energy quota system to further promote photovoltaics Consumption.

The second is to reasonably grasp the pace of development and lead the upgrading of the photovoltaic industry through technological innovation. According to the mid-term evaluation of the "13th Five-Year Plan", photovoltaic companies should appropriately control the pace of development and avoid inefficient or ineffective investment; focusing on promoting industrial technological progress and technological cost reduction, photovoltaic companies should continue to increase R & D investment to avoid technology and products Homogenization, build core competitiveness, and achieve sustainable development of enterprises by promoting technological progress; explore the deep integration of photovoltaic power generation and intelligence, information technology and energy storage technology, promote the diversified development of photovoltaic; through the active development of "photovoltaic poverty alleviation", to achieve poverty alleviation, environmental protection and photovoltaic industry win-win situation.

The third is to adhere to the market leadership, accelerate the improvement of the photovoltaic power generation market mechanism, and promote the market-oriented trading of photovoltaic power generation in an orderly manner. We will implement the requirements for the development of the clean energy industry, accelerate the cultivation of the market competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation, and accelerate the access to the Internet at affordable prices. Actively explore diversified business model innovation, improve the economy of photovoltaic power generation, seize the gradual decline of subsidies, create self-hematopoietic function, accelerate the transformation from subsidy-driven to market-driven, expand end-user market applications, provide diversified and high quality products and services, and create new profit growth points for enterprises.