Huaneng Design Institute
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Under the background of double carbon, "break" and "stand" in energy transition"
The proposal of the "double carbon" target means that China's energy structure will undergo a thorough reshuffle. In the process of reshaping the energy structure, green and low-carbon transformation has been clearly defined as the primary task and placed in a more prominent position, which plays a fundamental and key role in promoting "double carbon.
As the world's largest energy producer and consumer, if China wants to achieve the goal of "double carbon" in the process of promoting modernization, and better accomplish the two major tasks of ensuring energy security and promoting green and low-carbon development, we must unswervingly implement the new development concept, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, focus on the key points, and achieve the goal of breaking down first, advancing and retreating in an orderly manner, and combining addition and subtraction.
"Break" and "Stand" in Energy Transition"
Rich coal, lean oil and less gas is the national condition of our country, and the energy structure dominated by coal is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. To achieve the goal of "double carbon", we must be based on the national conditions, adhere to the principle of seeking progress in stability, and gradually realize it. We should not be divorced from reality, be eager for success, engage in sports "carbon reduction" and "sudden brake". As General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed, green transformation is a process, not an overnight thing. We must first stand and then break, not break before standing. "The guy who can't eat in his hand is thrown away first, but the new guy hasn't got it yet. This is no good."
To promote the energy transition, we must first clarify the direction of the problem, to solve the "stand what" and "break what".
-- The system.
The new power system with new energy as the main body is the key support for the green and low-carbon energy transformation. Electric energy is at the center of the energy system and has the highest economic efficiency. Studies have shown that electricity will account for more than 70% of energy consumption by 2060, and green electricity will be the main way to reduce emissions.
At present, my country has built the world's largest, safe and reliable power grid. Thanks to the advancement and rapid development of transmission technology, my country's power grid is the only super-large power grid that has not experienced large-scale power outages in the past 20 years. But under the "double carbon" goal, this "net" will face a huge test. According to the calculation that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80% in 2060, the installed capacity of new energy power generation such as wind power and solar power generation will reach billions of kilowatts and become the main power supply.
The large-scale and high proportion of new energy grid connection brings new challenges to the power system: electric energy is a special commodity, which needs to be balanced in real time, while new energy power generation "depends on the sky", which greatly increases the operation risk of the system. It is urgent to focus on improving the capacity of new energy consumption and storage, and actively build a new power system with more powerful functions and more flexible operation.
-- The market.
Energy market-oriented reform is an important means to solve the conflicts of interests among various subjects in the process of energy transformation. With the continuous improvement of the socialist market economic system, it has become an inevitable trend to liberalize energy prices and restore the commodity attributes of energy.
After years of exploration and innovation, China's oil and gas exploration and development market has been liberalized in an orderly manner, key progress has been made in the reform of the operation mechanism of oil and gas pipeline network, and the construction of a unified national electricity market system has been actively promoted. The main framework of "four beams and eight pillars" of energy system reform has been basically established, and the system and mechanism have been initially improved, but on the whole, it still can not keep up with the pace of energy transformation and reform.
In October 2021, the price mechanism of "market coal" and "planned electricity" led to the soaring coal prices that could not be effectively transmitted to the end users of electricity, coal and electricity enterprises fell into large-scale losses, and electricity was tight in some areas. Historically, China has also experienced emergencies such as oil shortage, gas shortage, electricity shortage and coal shortage. In recent years, after the large-scale development of new energy, there have been serious problems of "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light". Almost all of these phenomena are closely related to the energy price formation mechanism. Under the goal of "double carbon", how to organize the market well and allocate energy resources reasonably and efficiently is particularly urgent. Only by giving full play to the basic role of the market can we fully mobilize the enthusiasm of various market entities in the energy transition and comprehensively improve the efficiency of energy governance.
-- Technology.
Scientific and technological innovation is the fundamental driving force to promote low-carbon transformation, reduce energy costs and ensure energy security. Oil and natural gas are the main energy sources of the second and third industrial revolutions. Due to the imbalance and mismatch between the world's energy consumption centers and energy resource-rich regions, geopolitical conflicts over oil and gas resources have continued in history. The global renewable energy is rich, balanced, and has great potential for development. As long as there is technology, these resources can be used stably and economically. In a sense, the carbon neutral era is to move from the past resource dependence to the future technology dependence.
With the support and guidance of the national energy science and technology policy, China's clean energy development and utilization technology level has been significantly improved, and hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic, nuclear power, power transmission and transformation technologies have reached the world's advanced level. However, the level of autonomy of key core technologies still needs to be improved, and the energy technology supporting carbon peak and carbon neutrality has not yet made a breakthrough. For example, wind power spindle bearings, hydrogen fuel cell a number of core components are heavily dependent on imports.
The ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission stressed the need to promote major breakthroughs in green and low-carbon technologies. To lead the global energy transformation and enhance global competitiveness in the era of carbon neutrality, China must do more in green technology, and urgently need to plan the layout and implement a number of forward-looking and strategic national major cutting-edge scientific and technological projects. focus on the green and intelligent development of fossil energy and clean and low-carbon utilization, large-scale utilization of renewable energy, new power systems, hydrogen energy, energy storage and other key technologies, and deepen applied basic research. Only from the strategic height of national energy security and sustainable economic development, and vigorously promote the innovation and promotion of green technology, can we seize the initiative in the new round of scientific and technological revolution.
-- Breaking the traditional fossil energy structure.
The global low-carbon energy transition is a common challenge for all countries. In 2021, the proportion of fossil energy in the world's primary energy is 82%, and the high proportion of fossil energy is a common problem. For our country, the difficulty lies in the energy structure, the proportion of coal is more than half.
Data show that the use of coal produces 30% higher carbon dioxide emissions than oil and 70% higher than natural gas. More than 70% of carbon emissions from my country's energy system come from the use of coal. In recent years, my country's air pollution environmental governance has promoted the centralization and clean utilization of coal consumption, but coal is still the main energy source and the primary reason for the huge carbon emissions.
The most important way to achieve carbon neutrality is to replace high-carbon fossil energy with low-carbon energy and zero-carbon energy. The energy structure of "one coal dominates" determines that we will make painstaking efforts to promote the substitution and transformation and upgrading of coal consumption, speed up the pace of coal reduction, and speed up the deployment of rational regulation and control of oil and gas consumption. Coal reduction measures such as controlling new coal power projects, promoting coal reduction and coal restriction in key coal-using industries, and orderly promoting the substitution of bulk coal should also be resolute and vigorous, so as to achieve the goal of strictly controlling the growth of coal consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and gradually reducing coal consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
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