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In late September, the national on-grid electricity price was officially lowered and the sales price will not be adjusted for the time being.
In late September, the national on-grid electricity price was officially lowered and the sales price will not be adjusted for the time being.
Although the reduction of electricity prices has been collectively opposed by the power system, the National Development and Reform Commission is still pushing forward the reduction of the national thermal power feed-in tariff step by step.
On September 10, the reporter confirmed from some provinces that the National Development and Reform Commission has started a nationwide review of the on-grid electricity price for thermal power from September 9, and will officially reduce the national on-grid electricity price in late September. The reduction node is expected to be September 25. Individual provinces may not adjust due to their own factors. At the same time, the national sales price will not be adjusted this time.
"The main reason is that coal prices have fallen sharply, and local governments are calling for a reduction in electricity prices." Five major power group power expert Liu told reporters.
In the name of renewable energy
It is worth noting that the electricity price reduction did not mention the coal-electricity linkage policy, but in the name of making up for the lack of renewable energy funds.
According to the reporter's understanding, the National Development and Reform Commission's reduction of electricity prices is mainly to solve the shortage of renewable energy funds and make up for the lack of denitrification and dust removal costs.
Data show that in 2012, the funding gap for renewable energy in my country was about 9 billion yuan, and so far, the cumulative funding gap is about 20 billion yuan.
At present, local development and reform commissions have started to review the adjustment range of feed-in electricity prices from this week. According to the news obtained by the reporter, because the extent of the electricity price reduction is still under review, the final extent of the reduction has not been determined. It is preliminarily estimated that the average reduction will be 1.5 cents -2 cents/kWh, and the highest reduction in some provinces will reach 3 cents/kWh. The lowest reduction is 1 cent/kWh, and individual provinces may not adjust due to their own factors. The national sales price will not be adjusted this time.
Mr. Liu told reporters that at present, the adjustment range of on-grid electricity price reviewed by various provinces is mainly the comprehensive electricity price level, power supply structure, and the level of environmental protection facilities in thermal power plants. Because the actual situation in each province is different, the adjustment range will also vary.
At the same time, the national feed-in tariff reduction node is expected to be September 25.
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice, deciding to raise the additional collection standard of renewable energy electricity prices from September 25, and further improve environmental protection electricity price policies such as denitrification.
Mr. Liu pointed out that the government's adjustment of the on grid electricity price is not in the name of coal power linkage, but in the name of making up for the renewable energy fund. Therefore, it is likely to choose to reduce the on grid electricity price of thermal power while raising the additional collection standard of renewable energy electricity price on September 25.
"Previously, the industry generally predicted that the on-grid electricity price for thermal power would not be adjusted within the year, because the coal-electricity linkage cycle is one year, and the adjustment cycle will not be reached until January next year." Guan Dali, a coal analyst at Zhongyu Consulting, was surprised to hear the news. "how much renewable energy is now, except for hydropower, everything else can be ignored."
As for this adjustment, which only involves the on-line electricity price, Guan Dali believes that the electricity price will not be sold, and all of them will be earned by the power grid.
Mr. Liu, on the other hand, analyzed that "the main reason for lowering the feed-in tariff must still be due to the impact of coal prices falling too much and too fast, in order to solve the shortage of renewable energy funds is to collect money, while to make up for the lack of denitrification and dust removal costs, it is to make up for the power plant. It is possible that the grid will be dedicated to lowering the feed-in tariff." Mr. Liu said.
Five powers will be damaged over 20 billion
The biggest impact of the national feed-in tariff reduction is undoubtedly the five major power generation groups that oppose the most fierce. "At present, power generation enterprises have just had a good life, and the feed-in tariff has dropped again." Guan Dali believes that this means that coal prices will fall again, because power plants now have a stronger voice and electricity prices have fallen, and they will definitely continue to press coal prices. According to the statistics of the five major power groups, if the on-grid electricity price is reduced by 1.5 cents -2 cents, it means that the five major power groups will lose 20 billion -30 billion yuan.
"The adjustment range of 1.5-2 points is not small, and the price of a penny is equivalent to the price of coal of 30 yuan." Guan Dali pointed out.
The data shows that in 2012, the national power coal consumption increased to 1.855 billion tons. If the on-grid electricity price is reduced by 1.5-2 points, if the coal price does not drop, it means that the national power industry has spent 83.5 billion -111.3 billion more coal prices. "So electric companies will definitely press the price of coal. If the price of coal drops, the power plant may not have to spend more money." Guan Dali think.
Mr. Liu pointed out that coal accounts for about 70% of the cost of power generation enterprises. The low coal price has indeed greatly increased the profits of power generation enterprises. However, due to the high coal price for many years and the failure to adjust the electricity price in time, the policy losses of power generation enterprises have been caused. This debt is expected to take 5-10 years to repay. Therefore, on the whole, power generation enterprises have not really realized profits.
Previously, power companies have been opposed to lowering electricity prices on the grounds of increased environmental protection costs, because the comprehensive denitrification and other environmental protection transformation work that began last year requires large investment, and the subsidized electricity prices introduced by the state are difficult to offset the cost increase. "So this time the government will cut the feed-in tariff and will take out some funds to supplement the power plant." Mr. Liu said.
However, Mr. Liu is still worried about power generation companies. "With the introduction of the direct power supply policy, the profit margins of power generation companies are already very small. Even if the environmental protection costs are covered, the reduction of the on-grid electricity price is still a major blow." Mr. Liu said.
Coal market is still uncertain
In fact, the coal industry has just shown a little sign of warming up.
The 17th Taiyuan Coal Trading Composite Price Index released on September 9 was 95.03 points, up 0.32 points from the previous period. This is the first three-week rise since the index was released in May this year after 14 consecutive periods of decline. Judging from the sub-indices of Taiyuan Index, the thermal coal index was 88.48 points, down 1.14 points; the coking coal index was 89.34 points, up 1.60 points; the injection coal index was 101.07 points, up 1.44 points from the previous period; and the chemical coal index was 141.16 points, unchanged for five consecutive weeks.
However, analysts from the China (Taiyuan) Coal Trading Center pointed out that the main reason is that coking coal has risen, and the thermal coal market is still very sluggish. Affected by multiple factors such as the high temperature weather is coming to an end and the enthusiasm of power plants to purchase thermal coal to replenish the warehouse is still not high, the price of thermal coal in the producing area Continued to fall slightly. In the current period, the price of Shanxi thermal coal decreased slightly, of which the price of Wuzhai 5800 and 5000 kaka thermal coal was reduced by 20 yuan per ton. Shuozhou area thermal coal is mainly sent to the surrounding power plants, limited demand for thermal coal, resulting in local coal mines continue to limit production, some varieties of coal pit price per ton down about 10 yuan.
A person from a power plant in Hebei told reporters that because the Ministry of Commerce recently raised tariffs on imported lignite by 3%, it has limited the impact of imported coal on China's coal market to a certain extent. At present, coal prices in some areas have risen.
Guan Dali believes that Indonesia belongs to the ASEAN Free Trade Area, as long as there is a certificate of origin of FORME issued by the Indonesian government, it can be exempted from 3% tariff. So just go through some more procedures, in fact, it's still tax-free. Therefore, this tax adjustment has an impact on lignite imports from Russia, the United States and other countries, while for lignite from Indonesia and Vietnam, it is only a few more procedures.
"The benefits for the domestic coal market are limited. At present, the future of the coal market is unknown. If the on grid electricity price is lowered, the domestic coal market will be even worse." Guan Dali think.
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