China Power Media Power Data Survey Center China Power News Network China Power Media Weibo WeChat Client Jointly Launched

Planning: Huang Ying AI Junping Execution: Liao Hongxing Zhao Yajun Gao Huijun Jia Fandi Wang Yiran Li Liang Wang Ping Zhou Xiaobo Zhang Fangfang Liu Zhuo Hu Jia Hui Writing: Zhang Zhenxing

Editor's note 2016 is the first year of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the year of my country's energy industry structure adjustment and energy consumption transformation, and the year of steady progress in the reform of the power system. As a basic industry related to national energy security, economic development and social stability, the power industry is of great significance and far-reaching influence to deepen the power reform and promote the energy revolution.

During the National Two Sessions in 2016, China Power Media Group launched a survey on the confidence index of energy and power reform and development. The editors and reporters of China Power Media went deep into the two sessions and conducted investigations on the representatives of the energy system and the power industry and the grassroots power cadres and employees through exclusive interviews, telephone calls, and online questionnaires. The CLP Media Power Data Survey Center collected massive network data, used data mining technology, combined with the international advanced ARIMA model accurate calculation, to obtain the energy and power reform and development index, from another dimension to interpret the energy development trend, in order to provide readers.

If 2015 is the year of the restart of a new round of power system reform in China, then 2016 must be the year of development. With the continuous advancement of the power system reform, the reform dividend will be gradually released, providing a solid driving force for the entire "13th Five-Year" economic and social development.

On the occasion of the National Two Sessions, the reform of the electric power system has become a hot topic of discussion among the delegates, and the reform of the electric power system is also expected to be promoted and implemented more comprehensively, actively and steadily this year. The analysis of the China Power Media Power Data Survey Center shows that during the National Two Sessions, representatives, power experts, scholars, and grassroots cadres and employees paid great attention to the energy consumption structure, clean energy utilization, and power market construction, which has also become an increase in confidence in power reform and development. An important factor in the index.

The analysis of the collected questionnaire shows that the interviewees generally believe that the dividends of energy reform during the 13th five-year Plan will be further released, and the reform of the power system, as an important area of energy reform, plays an obvious role in optimizing China's overall economic structure. it will also become one of the most anticipated areas of energy reform. Comprehensive data show that the confidence index of China's power reform and development is 164, and people's confidence in power reform and development is showing a good trend. (The confidence index threshold is 0~200,100 is the critical value, more than 100 is optimistic, less than 100 is pessimistic.)

"Thirteen Five" economic restructuring confidence is higher

In 2015, China's economy entered a shift period and the overall economic situation slowed down. As the growth rate of real estate, mining, metallurgy, and building materials industries is gradually cold, the growth rate of my country's energy consumption has also shown a downward trend. It is expected that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's economic transformation will further accelerate, and consumption may gradually surpass investment. Net export trade has become the main engine of my country's economic growth, and economic restructuring will have a profound impact on my country's "13th Five-Year" energy consumption.

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country's energy consumption structure has shown an obvious trend of optimization. In 2015, coal consumption accounted for 64.0 per cent, down 4.5 percentage points from 2012; oil consumption accounted for 18.1 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points from 2012; natural gas consumption accounted for 5.9 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points from 2012; primary electricity and other energy consumption accounted for 12 per cent, up 2.3 percentage points from 2012; and clean energy consumption accounted for 17.9 per cent, up 3.4 percentage points from 2012.

According to a survey conducted by the China Power Media Power Data Survey Center, people have high confidence in the transformation of the energy consumption structure. Among them, 68.70 of the people believe that the energy consumption of the tertiary industry is soaring. However, because my country's current energy consumption structure is difficult to change in the short term, industrial energy accounts for 70%. The current situation may continue for a period of time, and some interviewees are cautious about changes in the energy consumption structure. According to the survey, 17.39 per cent of respondents believe that there are challenges in changing the structure of energy consumption during the 13th five-year Plan period.

"Thirteen five" energy clean confidence is high

During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the pace of my country's energy industry transformation will be further accelerated, but my country's coal-based energy structure is difficult to completely change. Under the condition of continuous pressurization of air pollution prevention and control tasks, coal-fired units will be upgraded and upgraded. Become a major issue facing the thermal power industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan.

The Action Plan for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2015-2020) issued by the State Energy Administration shows that in 2020, the raw coal selection rate of coal-fired industrial boilers in China will reach more than 80%. After the transformation of coal-fired generating units in active service, the average coal consumption for power supply is lower than 310g/kWh, and the proportion of thermal coal in coal consumption has increased to more than 60%. The average operating efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers increased by 8 percentage points compared with 2013; we will steadily promote demonstration projects such as high-quality coal processing, graded cascade utilization, and resource utilization of coal mine waste, and build a number of demonstration projects for clean and efficient utilization of coal.

In response to the "13th Five-Year Plan" coal-fired units ultra-low emissions and energy-saving transformation targets, CLP Media Power Data Survey Center survey shows that 22.61 percent of the population believes that all ahead of schedule, 19.13 percent of the population believes that all ahead of schedule; 43.48 percent of the population believes that some ahead of schedule; and 14.78 percent of the population believes that some lag behind. Comprehensive data show that the interviewees are generally optimistic about the confidence of ultra-low emissions and energy-saving transformation of coal-fired units in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan.

Among the many factors affecting the clean production of coal-fired generating units, policy and technical factors are considered to account for a relatively important proportion, accounting for 40% and 45.22 respectively, while the financial factors once hyped by the media only account for 13.04.

With the advancement of a new round of power system reform, especially the gradual implementation of the "Implementation Opinions on the Orderly Development and Electricity Utilization Plan", during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, new energy will usher in a new period of development opportunities.

The National Energy Administration's "Thirteenth Five-Year" Development Plan for Renewable Energy (Draft for Comment) "shows that in 2020, my country's non-fossil energy will account for 15% of total energy consumption, and it will reach 20% in 2030. During the period, the new investment is about 2.3 trillion billion yuan.

Among them, by the end of 2020, the target for hydropower development and utilization is 0.38 billion kilowatts, solar power generation is 0.16 billion kilowatts, and wind power generation is 0.25 billion kilowatts.

For the "13th Five-Year" new energy development trend, the interviewees generally showed more optimistic. Among them, 22.61 per cent believe that new energy will develop rapidly, 29.57 per cent in medium and high speed, and 20 per cent in steady development. 27.83 per cent of the respondents believe that the new energy market is not yet perfect, and that the financing, grid connection and over-reliance on subsidies of some new energy enterprises are difficult to solve completely in the short term, and the new energy industry still needs further adjustment in the future.

Electricity sales market construction confidence to good

In 2015, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Electric Power System", marking the official launch of a new round of power system reform in my country. At the end of 2015, the introduction of six supporting documents for power reform laid the foundation for further deepening the reform of the power system and improving the power market during the 13th Five-Year Plan. The "13th Five-Year Plan" will be a critical period for my country to build a new power system that is green, low-carbon, energy-saving, emission-reduction, safer and more reliable, and realizes the optimal allocation of comprehensive resources, and to promote my country's power production, consumption and comprehensive technology upgrades. One of the biggest highlights of the new round of electricity reform is the full liberalization of the electricity sales side market, absorbing social capital to participate in the construction of the electricity sales market, realizing the diversification of electricity sales entities, and allowing power users to have more choices. Under the guidance of policies, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, more social capital may participate in the construction of the electricity sales market. According to a survey conducted by the China Power Media Power Data Survey Center, the proportion of people with strong confidence is 20.87, the proportion of people with strong confidence is 31.30, and the proportion of people with average confidence is 33.04.

With the entry of more social capital, China's electricity market will gradually take shape. In view of the differences in regional power grids in China, the construction of electricity sales markets will also be out of sync. For the earliest mature power market, a survey by the CLP Media Power Data Survey Center showed that 33.91 per cent of respondents thought it would appear in South China, 26.96 per cent in East China and 21.74 per cent in North China.

On March 1, on the eve of the National Two Sessions, Beijing and Guangzhou Electric Power Trading Centers were established one after another.

To establish an effective competitive market structure and market system, the demonstration significance of Beijing and Guangzhou power trading centers will continue to ferment.

With regard to the establishment of electric power trading centers in Beijing and Guangzhou, a survey conducted by the China Power Media Power data Survey Center shows that 33.91 per cent of the respondents are full of expectations, 25.22 per cent think they will be more open and fair, and 40.87 per cent think they will continue to improve.

Electric Reform Observation-Expert Opinion

Shi Dinghuan: It is very necessary for China to liberalize the electricity sales market. The country should standardize the electricity sales market. The electricity market cannot be monopolized. The leaders of the relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission should give full consideration to the price system, and the quota system should also be paid attention.

We should be positive and steady. In the past few days, the German Energy Agency and I are negotiating work. In the area of electricity, our country can also learn from the experience of Germany and other European countries in developing electricity. For example, there are currently more than 800 companies in Germany participating in the competition in the electricity sales market. The degree is very high. We can learn from it properly, not in the power market monopoly, but the scale of development should also be moderate.

──Former Counselor of the State Council and Vice Chairman of the Council for the Promotion of Electricity

Mao Yushi: I have four concerns about the future power reform. The first is the ownership issue. Our current power plants and power grids have very little private capital and basically no foreign capital. I think this one needs to be changed first. Although it is very difficult, we have to take this step and try to change some of it first.

The second issue is competition. The grid can't compete, power plants can. Because electricity is different from other commodities, other commodities can easily achieve market competition, and liberalization is enough. The third point is the problem of distributed power supply. More and more new energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy are connected to the Internet, and there is also the problem of smart grid. The fourth issue is subsidies.

-famous economist and former chairman of Beijing Tianze Economic Research Institute

Lin Boqiang: I think there are two bright spots in this power reform. The first is the liberalization of the increase in transmission and distribution. In the past, it was through planning and distribution. Now it has gradually increased the role of marketization, which is a very big progress; the second is about The reform of electricity prices. For power grid companies, their profit model is also gradually changing, and national supervision will be more powerful and easier to control. After the reform, the threshold of the electricity market will be lowered. Whether it is the employees of the original power grid company, power generation companies or other capital, as long as they meet the conditions stipulated by the state, they can enter the electricity sales side market.

-Director, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University

Zeng Ming: At the beginning, social capital had a strong desire to participate in the competition on the electricity sales side. Now it seems to be slowing down. It may be that there are still many problems. To really participate in market competition is not so simple, to consider many factors, such as policy measures, their own competitive conditions and so on.

-- Professor, North China Electric Power University

Wang Wei, Tan Zhongfu: China's environmental capacity has been saturated, haze and pollution problems have a great impact. Coal power pollutant emissions account for a relatively large proportion of total industrial emissions. China's coal power accounts for about 70% of the total power generation, the United States accounts for about 45%, Japan accounts for about 26%, and the world average is about 40%.

The quota system for new energy power generation, from the quota of new energy power generation purchased and sold by power grid enterprises, the proportion of new energy power generation installed by power generation groups, and the proportion of new energy power generation in cross-provincial and cross-regional power transmission, has clearly defined the quantitative indicators that can be assessed and the main body of responsibility, providing a guarantee for the development of new energy from the perspective of organization and management.

The economic curve theory points out that as the scale of development or accumulation increases, the unit cost of the product will gradually decrease. At present, the cost of new energy power generation is gradually declining.

Although government subsidies for wind power and photovoltaic power generation will be reduced year by year, the electricity reform document has made it clear that the basic number of hours of power generation will be guaranteed to ensure a return on investment, beyond which the basic number of hours can compete. Because the cost of power generation resources used is extremely low, it should have good competitiveness, which is guaranteed from the market mechanism.

In summary, in the next few years, new energy (wind power, solar power) should have better development.

-- Beijing Energy Development Research Base, North China Electric Power University Professor

Zhang Kailin: I think that China's new energy will enter a gradual improvement of the high-speed development cycle. This development cycle will play a connecting role, mature new energy technologies will be expanded development, and some tentative new energy technologies will continue to experience more exploration. This kind of exploration is a process of circular rise, and it is also a historical stage that my country's new energy technology transformation and development must go through. However, under the general direction of the country's supply-side reform and economic structure adjustment, it will definitely attract more social resources to enter the new energy industry, and more social elites will engage in this industry, thereby gradually transforming and promoting the rise of the new energy industry.

-State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Research Institute

Electric modification observation-grass-roots sound

Ming Shaolin, Operation and Maintenance Center of CGNPC Wind Power Company: Under the new economic normal, the energy industry should vigorously promote supply-side reform and comprehensively improve its consumption capacity from the supply side. Vigorously promote the energy Internet and energy storage technology, vigorously promote the scenery storage, water and light complementary and other multi-energy complementary, but also to increase the proportion of new energy nearby.

The establishment of Beijing and Guangzhou electric power trading centers is an important step in China's new round of power reform, forming a mechanism that mainly determines energy prices by the market, so that the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources. In addition, it has greatly promoted the effective connection of new energy and renewable energy power generation with other power sources and power grids, improved the consumption capacity of clean energy, and accelerated the process of energy conservation, emission reduction and low-carbon transformation in my country.

State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company Zhang Pengfei: Social development is inseparable from electricity, national prosperity is inseparable from electricity, and people's livelihood is inseparable from electricity. The success or failure of power reform is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Therefore, power reform must be successful. In addition, at present, my country's nuclear power and electric power construction have gone abroad, and the construction of a global energy Internet has been singing the world. The power reform will surely make my country's power development better and faster.

In the next five years, the demand for electricity in society will definitely exceed that in the past, because now as the country vigorously promotes the integration of urban and rural areas, all walks of life will develop in an all-round way. The use of electricity for infrastructure and people's daily life are the main factors for the growth of social electricity consumption. At the same time, "Made in China" is getting stronger and stronger, and industrial electricity consumption will also increase significantly.

Han Yanjun of Shaanxi Pucheng Power Plant: The development of new energy is in line with the national green development direction and should be accelerated. However, based on the stabilization of economic development, the gradual maturity of science and technology in the new energy field, and the power market to resolve the impact of production capacity, it should enter the medium and high-speed development. During this period, we should speed up the reform of the power system, attract social capital investment, and make a difference in new energy vehicles and rural photovoltaic industry.

State Grid Jilin Power Supply Company Wang Yan: For ultra-low emissions and energy-saving transformation, the State Council clearly requires that policy incentives be increased, transformation investment is mainly enterprises, the central and local governments provide policy support, and increase preferential credit, bond issuance and other financing support. At present, ultra-low emission of coal consumption is a national hard and fast regulation. All enterprises are doing it and can achieve it. The actual implementation is higher than the national requirements. On the one hand, the haze is serious all over the country, and the enterprises themselves feel the harm of pollution and consciously pay more attention to environmental problems. On the other hand, the operating situation of thermal power plants has improved in the past two years. About 80% of the power plants are profitable and have the ability to invest in upgrading technologies.

Tang Ping, Jiangxi Branch of Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd.: new energy vehicles should be promoted and applied to buses. First of all, buses belong to the public transport system, and buses account for a large proportion of citizens' travel choices. For example, pure electric buses can achieve zero emissions during vehicle use, and the noise is lower than that of traditional diesel vehicles of the same level. Therefore, buses should reflect the principles of safety, reliability, energy saving and environmental protection, and produce good social benefits. Secondly, if new energy is used in large quantities on buses, it can also play a certain role in regulating the energy structure.

To sum up, the large-scale application of new energy buses can not only save valuable oil resources, but also contribute to protecting the environment and alleviating the energy crisis.

State Power Investment Nanyang Thermal Power Plant Long Xiuling: As my country's economic development enters a new normal, the growth rate of energy and power demand slows down. In mid -2016, power supply and demand will continue to show an overall surplus trend, and some regions may have a surplus pattern. It is expected that the electricity consumption of the primary industry will continue to remain at a medium-to-low level, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will continue to narrow under the influence of policies such as capacity reduction, and the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry will grow at a high speed, with an overall growth rate of about 0.3 per cent.

The establishment of power trading institutions means that the reform of the power system will enter a new stage of comprehensive pilot and orderly progress, and this is also the first time that China's power users have reached direct transactions with power generation enterprises on a large scale through cross-regional transmission channels. it is an important exploration to promote the formation of a market-oriented cross-regional and cross-provincial trading mechanism.

Fu Fangsai of Huaneng Xiaowan Hydropower Station: the 13th five-year Plan period is an important strategic opportunity period for energy transformation and development, and it is particularly urgent to solve the problem of "abandoning light and wind" of new energy.

Under the new economic normal, the demand for electricity is slowing down, so we should seize the opportunity to adjust the energy and power structure and strive to achieve comprehensive and benign development.